Ethical moments and institutional expertise in UK Government COVID-19 pandemic policy responses: where, when and how is ethical advice sought?

Background:The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic has required a rapid acceleration of policy decision making, and raised a wide range of ethical issues worldwide, ranging from vaccine prioritisation, welfare and public health ‘trade-offs', inequalities in policy impacts, and the legitimacy of scientific expertise.Aims and objectives:This paper explores the legacy of the pandemic for future science-advice-policy relationships by investigating how the UK government's engagement with ethical advice is organised institutionally. We provide an analysis of some key ethical moments in the UK Government response to the pandemic, and institutions and national frameworks which exist to provide ethical advice on policy strategies.Methods:We draw on literature review, documentary analysis of scientific advisory group reports, and a stakeholder workshop with government ethics advisors and researchers in England.Findings:We identify how particular types of ethical advice and expertise are sought to support decision making. Contrary to a prominent assumption in the extensive literature on ‘governing by expertise', ethical decisions in times of crisis are highly contingent.Discussion and conclusions:The paper raises an important set of questions for how best to equip policymakers to navigate decisions about values in situations characterised by knowledge deficits, complexity and uncertainty. We conclude that a clearer pathway is needed between advisory institutions and decision makers to ensure ethically-informed debate.

Aid, Trade and Development: The Future of Globalization, Second Edition

This volume presents a broad sweep of modern economic history underpinning aid, trade, development and globalization in the last half century and the salient challenges facing the global community today. The author draws on his long years as an academic and development practitioner to recommend what needs to be done to cope with the backsliding of the fight against global poverty, fractured geopolitics and the threats to the multilateral economic order. The new, revised edition analyses how unilateralism, rising protectionism and the Covid-19 pandemic seriously threaten global sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations on the policy changes needed to make globalization more equitable and development more sustainable. This book will be of interest to researchers and students of economic development and economic history, as well as all those concerned about global inequality and sustainability. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit.

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its 'Global Britain' strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that 'Global Britain' yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership.

Do Turbulent Business Environments Shape Asymmetric Trade Policy Responses? Insights into the Covid-19 Pandemic and the Great Recession

The current pandemic crisis and the Great Recession are the most turbulent events of the XXI century. The aim of the paper is to explore and identify the pattern of response through mixes of harmful trade policy interventions during these two systemic crises.The comparative descriptive assessment focuses on two broad categories of measures, i.e. import-related and export-related harmful interventions. Some stylized facts emerged from this analysis and draw the conclusion that the two major crises have led to different responses from governments, dictated by reasons and specific needs. These patterns of response challenge the future and stability of international trading system and the behavior of companies in the global business environment. Therefore, this research provides valuable information not only for the business community, but for macro-policy makers as well.

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE TRADE AND THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CRISES ON EXPORT

Agricultural trade in India has recently experienced significant changes as a result of global crisis. The years 2021 and 2022 saw record exports ($50.2 billion) and imports ($32.4 billion). The resulting surplus of $17.8 billion was significantly lower than the surplus of $27.7 billion in the previous record-breaking export year 2013–14. Covid pandemic and Russia Ukraine war had a positive influence on the record exports from India. But the greater increase in imports has partially offset the remarkable expansion in exports. In this context, an attempt has been made to examine the causes of this pattern in India's export of agricultural produces. The study in this regard is significant because, aside from software services, this is one industry in which India has some comparative advantage. The nation must prioritise a stable trade policy, especially for those goods having highest trade potential.

THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS

Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.

Finding Feet on Trade Agreements: Empowering Women Entrepreneurs Amidst a Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic has deepened the existing gender inequalities. In particular, it has dealt a significant blow to women entrepreneurs, as it has magnified the pre-pandemic disadvantages women have faced in the economic, social, financial and regulatory ecosystems they operate in, particularly due to the nature and size of their businesses. The article outlines three main reasons that explain why women entrepreneurs have been disproportionately impacted during this health pandemic. It then explores how trade agreements can help women overcome the barriers that impede their entrepreneurial potential and help their businesses sustain the pandemic-inflicted market disruptions.

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: Evidence from Five African Countries

Through some empirical studies, the flow of FDI and trade openness have proven to support economic growth in developing countries. This paper examines the significance of FDI and trade openness in five African countries (Ghana, Morocco, Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia). The study employed the panel data analysis method using data from the World Bank for the period 1994-2019 for the five selected countries. The result from the Random effect model indicated that FDI positively supports growth, whereas trade openness harms economic growth in these countries. The outcome further revealed that Uganda enjoys more significance than the other countries using the countries' dummies through the pooled model estimation. We recommend that various governments focus more on exports, reduce imports, attract more FDI through incentives, and create a regulatory environment that is friendly to FDI.

Development of Trade and Financial-Economical Relationships between China and Russia: A Study Based on the Trade Gravity Model

This article empirically assessed new opportunities and provides a conceptual justification for promising areas of trade and financial and economic relations between China and Russia amidst ongoing global turbulence, the post-COVID situation, and sanctions pressure. The study utilized the trade gravity model, taking into account the latest trends in the development of the research subject and object, as well as current challenges and trends in the global economy. The study revealed similarities between the political systems, reforms, and policies of China and Russia, with centralized power structures overlapping and supporting each other at international forums such as the UNSC. The findings suggest that both countries plan to increase trade volume in the next two years, with China focusing more on trade and economic development, while Russia works to promote security and political stability. This study provides valuable insights into the economic relationship between Russia and China, its impact on the US and Europe, and highlights the need for effective policy interventions to address the challenges posed by this relationship. It offers significant theoretical and practical contributions, including the potential to unlock the potential of national economies, increase their competitiveness and help states enter a phase of advanced and sustainable development. This article provides several policy recommendations to ensure the long-term sustainability of the economic relationship between Russia and China and foster mutual understanding and trust between their peoples. These include promoting trade diversification, enhancing financial cooperation, addressing trade barriers, strengthening political and security coordination, mitigating negative impacts on other countries, promoting sustainable development, and fostering people-to-people exchanges. © 2023 by the authors.

The heterogeneous effects of trade policy on trade resilience during the 2020 trade downturn

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in large and varying declines in bilateral trade flows. This study investigates whether these diverse effects can be explained by differences in trade costs as measured by pre-existing trade policies (e.g. tariffs, non-tariff measures and trade agreements). Results indicate that trade flows subject to higher trade costs declined more than average during 2020. The results also show that trade costs have heterogeneous effects depending on the thickness of trade relationships, with small exporters being relatively more affected by the presence of trade costs. We interpret the results as evidence that the fall in demand during 2020 caused higher-cost and less-established suppliers to be squeezed out of international markets. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quality and selling price dependent sustainable perishable inventory policy: Lessons from Covid-19 pandemic

This paper addresses the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the warehousing of perishable items facing demand-side shocks, mainly those with selling price and product quality dependent demand, for example, fresh fruits, meats, vegetables, packed foods, etc. Along with demand-side issues, such an inventory system consumes a significant amount of energy in terms of freshness, increasing carbon tax and dwindling the firm's total profit. We formulate two-warehouse inventory models of perishables items using the first-in-first-out (FIFO) dispatching policy under two different Covid-19 lockdown scenarios. The two-warehouse system primarily consists of an owned warehouse (OW) and a rented warehouse (RW). Two different lockdown scenarios are considered as;(i) the lockdown during the consumption of goods in OW and (ii) the lockdown during the consumption of goods in RW. The demand rate is assumed to decline and surge by a finite volume as lockdown is forced and relaxed. The proposed models help in assessing the impact of lockdown on (i) product quality, (ii) product cost, (iii) inventory level, (iv) freshness keeping efforts, (v) investment in green technologies, and (vi) carbon cap and trade policy. We determine the above six parameters to maximize the firm's total profit. The key findings of this model suggest that yield is primarily affected due to carbon cap and trade policy, lockdown period, item price, backlogging, and variation in the holding costs in OW and RW. These models may assist the small, medium, and large firms involved in perishable or cold supply chains to assess the effect of Covid-19 like disruption and take corrective measures to maximize their profit.

The EU Trade Agenda—Rules on State Intervention in the Market

This Article critically analyzes the main legal and policy issues that are likely to determine the development of the EU's trade policy concerning rules on State intervention in the market, specifically on subsidies and SOEs. The article assesses the aforementioned issue especially within the context of the new trade strategy entitled "An Open, Sustainable and Assertive Trade Policy” set out by the European Commission in February 2021, at the core of which stands the concept of strategic autonomy. The focus of our analysis is on key elements of the current EU competition and trade policies and normative initiatives, namely: the relaxation of the usual State aid regime under Articles 107 and 108 TFEU to give Member States more flexibility in supporting their economies and strengthen EU industrial policy;the likelihood of EU proposals resulting in any substantial change to international trade law on subsidies and SOEs at the multilateral (WTO) level;a systemic horizontal investigation into the relevant trade rules promoted by the EU in its most recent practice of PTAs;and, finally, the EU pursuing stronger protection of its companies with its recently announced new regulation on foreign subsidies, on the basis of which the European Commission can investigate foreign subsidies and impose remedies. Even though, at first sight, it may seem that the current evolution of the EU trade policy on these issues seems inconsistent, the Article argues that the unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral approaches are indeed strictly intertwined, and they reveal a significant shift in the most recent EU trade policy objective in relation to the role of State in the market.

Sustainable development:a new agenda for high-quality development of tourism

The COVID-19 pandemic has lasted for three years, social mobility has been greatly reduced, and the tourism industry has basically come to a standstill. With the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies and the refinement of governance, the restart and reshaping of the tourism industry is just around the corner. But the tourism industry, after the restart, is very different from that of three years ago, full of uncertainty and unpredictability. The global political and economic situation, geopolitics and international trade have undergone irreversible changes. The global industrial chain and supply chain have been restructured and the process of globalization has been interrupted and replaced by block cooperation characterized by regionalization.

ABD Ticaret Belirsizliğinin Dolar-TL Kuru Üzerine Etkisi

Son yıllarda yaşanan başta ticaret savaşları olmak üzere birçok iktisadi, siyasi ve askeri gelişme ticaret belirsizliǧini arttırmıştır. Ayrıca COVID-19 pandemisinin ortaya çıkması ve etkilerinin halen devam etmesi de küresel ticareti olumsuz yönde etkileyerek ticaret belirsizliǧinde artışa neden olmuştur. Baker ve ark.. (2016)'nin geliştirdiǧi ticaret politika belirsizliǧi endeksi bu kapsamda önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır. Ticaret politika belirsizliǧi endeksi başta döviz kurları olmak üzere baǧlantılı birçok göstergeyi de önemli ölçüde etkileyebilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD ticaret politikası belirsizliǧinin Dolar-TL kuru üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu kapsamda, 2002:1-2022:8 dönemine ait aylık verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmada, analizi gerçekleştirmek için zaman serisi analiz teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Bu çerçevede deǧişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmış, eşbütünleşme katsayıları DOLS, FMOLS ve CCR tahmin edicileri ile tahmin edilmiş ve nedensellik ilişkileri Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans alanı nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre ABD ticaret politikası belirsizliǧi ile Dolar-TL kuru arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bununla birlikte ABD ticaret politika belirsizliǧindeki artışlar Dolar-TL kurunu arttırmaktadır. Son olarak ABD ticaret politika belirsizliǧi Dolar-TL kurunun uzun dönemde nedeni iken, kısa ve orta dönemde nedeni deǧildir.Alternate abstract:Many economic, political and military developments, especially trade wars, in recent years have increased trade uncertainty. In addition, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the continuation of its effects have also increased trade uncertainties. All these developments had a significant negative impact on global trade. The trade policy uncertainty index developed by Baker et. al. (2016) provides important information in this context. The trade policy uncertainty index can significantly affect many related indicators, especially exchange rates. The aim of the paper is to investigate the effect of US trade policy uncertainty on the Dollar-TL rate. In this context, monthly data for the period 2000: 1-2020: 10 were used. In the study, Time series analysis techniques were used to perform the analysis. In this framework, the cointegration relationship between the variables was investigated with the Johansen cointegration test, the cointegration coefficients were estimated with DOLS, FMOLS and CCR estimators, and the causality relationships were examined with the Breitung and Candelon (2006) frequency domain causality test. According to the findings, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the US trade policy uncertainty and the Dollar-TL exchange rate. On the other hand, increases in the US trade policy uncertainty increase the Dollar-TL exchange rate. Finally, while the US trade policy uncertainty is the cause of the dollar-TL exchange rate in the long run, it is not the cause in the short and medium run.

Causes and Consequences of Global Supply Chain Disruptions: A Theoretical Analysis

Supply chains lack global resilience and break down in the face of multi-country disruptions due to crises. The impact of Supply Chain Disruptions (SCD) has become all too familiar across the world: shortages, inflation, factory closures, goods waiting at ports to be unloaded, etc. They weaken macroeconomic indicators, hamper economic growth, and impact national security. Over the past five years, the world has seen many crises that have rattled global markets, beginning with the US-China trade war in 2018. This was followed by the Covid19 pandemic, the blockage of the Suez Canal, environmental issues, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The combination of these events has abruptly frozen global economic activities by restricting and hindering the Global Supply Chain Networks (GSCN). This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the causes of these disruptions and their widespread global economic consequences.

Estimating the link between trade uncertainty, pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis

Globally, the outbreak of COVID‐19 and the associated containment measures adopted by governments are causing disruptions that sow uncertainty in several sectors of the economy. In this study, we explore the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty and global trade policy on food prices in Togo. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) framework and causality tests for the period 2000 M1–2021 M5. The results show that the different types of uncertainty affect food price stability in the short and long run, but the shock is more pronounced in the case of pandemic uncertainty, as they are sudden and disrupt food price stability. The main findings remain significant when we use various alternative methods and estimation techniques. However, our results suggest that the Togolese food market is facing pandemic uncertainty and trade policy, which should lead policymakers and stakeholders to take corrective measures to control losses.

Review of agrifood trade policies in the Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries 2019-2020

This review is devoted to the analysis of the agricultural trade policy of the Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia countries. The purpose of the review is to monitor the latest developments in the trade policies of these countries that have an impact on the dynamics and structure of trade. The overview chapter summarizes the main agricultural trade trends in the twelve countries of the region from 2019-2020. The publication also includes a thematic chapter analysing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on agrifood trade and trade policy in these countries.

Agricultural trade & policy responses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

Measures adopted around the world to contain the COVID-19 outbreak helped curb the spread of the virus and lowered the pressure on health systems. However, they also affected the global trading system, and the supply and demand of agricultural and food products. In response to concerns over food security and food safety worldwide, many countries reacted immediately to apply policy measures aiming to limit potentially adverse impacts on domestic markets. Covering the first half of 2020, the report provides an overview of short-term changes in trade patterns and policy measures related to agricultural trade that countries adopted in response to the pandemic. Despite the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, the efforts of governments and agricultural sector stakeholders to keep agricultural markets open and trade flowing smoothly contributed to remarkably resilient value chains. Effects on global trade in food and agriculture remained limited to short-term disruptions at the very beginning of the pandemic. Governments' policy responses covered a wide range of measures, including export restrictions, lowering of import barriers, and domestic measures. Most of the trade restricting measures were short-lived-. International political commitments were pivotal in the coordination of a global response to the crisis and in deterring countries from taking unilateral measures that could have harmed food security in other parts of the world. However, COVID-19 is still spreading and may entail severe implications for access to food and longer-term shifts in global demand and supply of food and agricultural commodities.

Health diplomacy in Africa-opportunities post-COVID-19.

For the last seventy years, Africa has suffered a disease burden that is steadily growing in scale and complexity. Despite that, health development in the continent has continued to rely on donors´ packages since decolonization. The last decade, however, has marked some health-related achievements on the continent such as the development of the Africa Health Strategy 2016-2030, the establishment of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the launch of The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and most recently the African Medicines Agency (AMA). These developments and the response to the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance and the opportunities of practicing Global Health Diplomacy on the continent. Home to 27% of the world´s countries, Africa has a tremendous global voting power which makes global health diplomacy an unequivocally effective soft power tool to achieve "The Africa we want". In this paper, we will expand on the importance of Global Health Diplomacy (GHD) practice in Africa as a soft power tool, illustrate the COVID-19 response in the continent championed by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) as a case study, and offer some recommendations to sustain and strengthen GHD´s role in the continent.